Weekly commentaries, market updates, videos, interesting articles and more.
Weekly Commentary Letter 2.7.2022
A rosy view through the rearview mirror.
To say that economists did not have great expectations for the January employment report might be understating their position. It was widely believed that the spread of the COVID-19 Omicron variant would translate into a dismal jobs report.1 It didn’t.
“After some estimates called for U.S. payrolls to decline by as much as 400,000, the labor market shockingly added that many jobs in January – and then some,” reported Olivia Rockeman of Bloomberg.1
The United States added 467,000 jobs in January, and the numbers for November and December were adjusted upward, too, by more than 700,000, reported the Bureau of Labor Statistics.2
The U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0 percent as labor force participation rate – the number of people working or actively looking for jobs increased. The change in participation reflected updated population estimates in the household survey based on U.S. Census data that boosted the population of 35- to 64-year-olds and reduced the number of people age 65 and older.2
The jobless rate among those seeking employment was 3.4 percent for White people, 3.6 percent for Asian people, 4.9 percent for Hispanic people, and 6.9 percent for Black people. Teenagers had the highest unemployment rate at 10.9 percent.2
Signs of the economy’s strength during the fourth quarter also showed in company earnings reports. Earnings reflect a company’s profitability. With 56 percent of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index reporting fourth quarter earnings so far, “The index is reporting earnings growth of more than 25% for the fourth straight quarter [of 2021] and earnings growth of more than 45% for the full year,” reported John Butters of FactSet.3
The jobs and earnings reports paint a picture of robust economic growth in the United States, despite supply chain issues and pandemic variants. Robust economic growth often is accompanied by rising demand for goods and that can push inflation higher, reported Investopedia.4 In 2021, U.S. inflation rose 7 percent, which is well above the 2 percent target set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), reported Christopher Rugaber of AP News.5
Last week’s jobs report likely reinforced the Fed’s commitment to pursue less accommodative monetary policy in 2022. Fed rate increases make borrowing more expensive, which cools economic growth and brings inflation into line.5
Major U.S. stock indices moved higher last week, according to Ben Levisohn of Barron’s.6 The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries finished the week higher.7
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
THE DOLLARS AND CENTS OF THE OLYMPIC GAMES. Last week, China won the first gold medal of the Beijing Games with a victory in the mixed short track speedskating relay, beating the Italian team by half a skate blade.8 The U.S. women’s hockey team outscored Finland, Russia and Switzerland,9 and a 21-year-old Swede took home gold in men’s moguls.10
In many countries, athletes who take home a medal in the winter Olympics receive financial bonuses and other rewards, reported The Economist and Brett Knight of Forbes. For example,
• Hong Kong promises a $642,000 bonus for a gold medal. (It hasn’t won one yet.)11
• Turkey will reward a gold medalist with $380,000. (It also has yet to win gold.) 11
• In Italy, a gold medal is worth a bonus of $214,000.12
• Spaniards who take home the gold receive $112,000.12
• German Olympic medalists were rewarded with a lifetime supply of free beer in the 2016 games.12
• South Korean medalists are rewarded with an exemption from national military service.12
• Slovakians who win individual gold medals receive $56,000, while those who compete on teams receive $17,000 each.11
• U.S. athletes receive $37,500 for a gold medal, $22,500 for silver, and $15,000 for bronze. (U.S. athletes also receive financial support through training grants, healthcare benefits and endorsements.)11
The rewards for Olympic medal winners are reasonably clear. However, the rewards for cities that host Olympic games are less so. James McBride and Melissa Manno of the Council on Foreign Relations reported:
“A growing number of economists argue that the benefits of hosting the games are at best exaggerated and at worst nonexistent, leaving many host countries with large debts and maintenance liabilities. Instead, many argue, Olympic committees should reform the bidding and selection process to incentivize realistic budget planning, increase transparency, and promote sustainable investments that serve the public interest.”13
Before the Tokyo Olympics, the event cost was estimated at $7 billion. Recent estimates of the actual cost are around $28 billion.13
That’s a significant cost overrun.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“I am very proud of my mom and consider her the most courageous woman I know. With perseverance, sacrifice and hard work, she raised a family of Olympic athletes and gave us the tools and the spirit to succeed. That is something that my brothers and I will always be thankful for.”14
—Diana López, Olympic medalist
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
1 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-04/-crazy-mess-of-jobs-data-has-economists-getting-it-wrong-again (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/02-07-22_Bloomberg_Crazy%20Mess%20of%20Jobs%20Data%20Has%20Economists%20G%20It%20Wrong%20Again_1.pdf)
6 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-sp-500-51644015673?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/02-07-22_Barrons_Stocks%20Rally%20Look%20Nice.%20Heres%20Why%20You%20Should%20Put%20It%20On%20Ice_6.pdf)
11 https://www.forbes.com/sites/brettknight/2022/02/04/these-12-countries-will-pay-their-olympians-six-figure-bonuses-for-winning-gold-medals/?sh=592a62b74ce1 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/02-07-22_Forbes_These%2012%20Countries%20Will%20Pay%20Their%20Olympians%20Six-Figure%20Bonuses%20for%20Winning%20Gold%20Medals_11.pdf)
2 https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/02/04/the-secret-to-winter-olympic-success-cold-or-hard-cash (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/02-07-22_The%20Economist_The%20Secret%20to%20Winter%20Olympic%20Success%20Cold%20or%20Hard%20Cash_12.pdf)